Aug 25, 2021 10:54:08 AM

PJM Environmental Information Services, Inc. (PJM-EIS) and the Energy Web Foundation completed the development of a blockchain-based tool for the Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS). Five PJM subscribers tested the paid subscription and piloted it on the GATS Bulletin Board in the Spring of 2021. The Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS) is a trading platform designed to meet the needs of buyers and sellers involved in the renewable energy certificate (REC) market - from homeowners, market participants such as utilities, brokers, aggregators, and companies wanting to reduce their carbon emissions. Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) are issued when one megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity is generated and delivered to the electricity grid from a renewable energy resource such as solar or wind. 

Florida utility Tampa Electric Co. (TECO) has announced it will retire three coal units and double its solar output within two years. According to Tampa Electric’s CEO, Archie Collins, “We currently have on our system 655 megawatts’ worth of renewable energy, of solar. That’s enough solar power to power 100,000 homes, just to ballpark it, and it represents between 6 and 7% of our total energy sales. So we will be at 14% by the end of 2023, and we are committed to even more beyond that.” The majority of Tampa Electric’s energy comes from natural gas which fuels about 74% of Florida’s electricity net generation in 2019, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The $850 million project scheduled for completion by 2023 includes a plan to replace the 445.5-MW coal-fired unit 1 with a 1,090-MW gas-fired generator known as the Big Bend.

Georgia had enough solar installed to power 312,450 homes and the solar market is projected to grow to 1,924 MegaWatts over the next 5 years in 2020. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association, Georgia went from having virtually no solar industry a decade ago to ranking ninth nationwide in installed solar capacity this year. Mandates in states such as Iowa, California, Colorado, and New York that required utilities to source a certain amount of renewables drove initial build-out of solar and wind power in the U.S. over the past three decades. According to Georgia Power spokesman Jeff Wilson, they have added more than 570 solar projects totaling close to 2,000 megawatts to their energy portfolio in the past decade which serves 2.6 million customers across the state. Solar power has also gained the support of conservative coalitions such as the Conservatives for Clean Energy Georgia and the Atlanta Tea Party Patriots, which are also advocating for the expansion of rooftop solar in the state. However, not all politicians are advocating for solar power, such as Lauren ‘Bubba’ McDonald, Georgia public-service commissioner who stated "I oppose any renewable portfolio standard—it’s not necessary." Commissioner Tim Echols - Georgia Public Service Commission has said, “Don’t come into my office talking about climate change or the environment. Talk about new jobs, talk about low-cost energy, talk about reduction of transmission lines.”

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General Market Update

  • The September 2021 NYMEX Henry Hub traded to $3.852/MMBtu, down $0.21 (-5.1%) from the previous Wednesday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging September 2021 through August 2022 futures contract was down $0.15 (-3.9%) to $3.668/MMBtu.
  • Boston’s Algonquin Citygate price went down $1.02 (-20.8%) to $3.88/MMBtu last Wednesday. Transco Zone 6 NYC price decreased $0.26 (-6.4%) to $3.83/MMBtu. 
  • Pennsylvania’s Eastern Gas South fell $0.13 (-3.6%) to $3.58/MMBtu. Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus spot price decreased $0.09 (-2.5%) to $3.55/MMBtu.
  • SoCal Citygate's price decreased from $2.71 (-36.2%) to $4.77/MMBtu last Wednesday. The price at Northern California PG&E Citygate fell $0.28 (-5.1%) to $5.16/MMBtu week over week.

Utility Highlight

  • The upcoming Price to Compare for First Energy Potomac Edison in Maryland, Residential No Electric Heat rate class (RSNH) is $0.06552/kWh, in effect from September 1, 2021, to December 31, 2021.
  • Negative Headroom in the POTED – RSNH territory is now present in the shorter periods for contracts with 3 and 6-month terms.  Headroom of negative $0.03289/kWh is likely for the 3 month period and headroom of negative $0.03947/kWh is likely for the 6 month period; respectively.

  • The current Price to Compare data for First Energy Potomac Edison in Maryland (POTED), General Service Commercial Small (GSCS) is $0.11404/kWh, in effect from September 1, 2021, to December 31, 2021.
  • Headroom is available in the POTED – GSCS market for the shorter periods for contracts with 3 and 6-month terms.  Headroom of $0.02441/kWh is likely for the 3 month period and headroom of $0.02686/kWh is likely for the 6 month period; respectively. 

Storage

  • For the week ending August 13th, 2021, the EIA reported net injections into the storage of 46 Bcf, which is more than last year’s net injection of 45 Bcf this week last year and more than the 5-year (2016-2020) average net injections of 42 Bcf.
  • Working natural gas in storage totaled 2,822 Bcf, which is 547 Bcf (-16.2%) lower than last year’s working gas totals of 3,369 Bcf at the same time and 174 Bcf (-5.8%) lower than the 5-year average of 2,996 Bcf.  The total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Supply/Demand

  • The average total supply of natural gas rose 0.1% week/week.  Dry natural gas production was unchanged by 0.0%, while net imports with Canada increased by 1.1% compared with the previous week. 
  • Total US consumption of natural gas fell by 0.2% since last week.  Natural gas consumption for power generation decreased 0.2%, industrial sector consumption increased 0.3%, residential-commercial consumption decreased 1.0%, and exports to Mexico decreased 3.6% compared to last week.
  • US LNG exports decreased week over week, with 16 vessels departing US ports for a combined 57 Bcf.

Weather

  • A hot weather pattern for most of the population centers of the United States is forecast through the 8-14 window starting August 30th.  The start of September 2021 brings a hot weather pattern as California, the Four Corners States, East Texas, Florida, Coastal Southern States, Middle Atlantic States, Great Lakes States, and most of New England are forecast for above-normal temperatures. 
  • The Northern Pacific Coast States, Northern Rocky Mountain States, Northern Midwestern States, and West Texas are forecast for normal temperatures.  The States along the Gulf Coast has the highest probability for much above normal temperatures.  Montana State has a forecast for below normal temperatures.
  • In the 8-14 day window from August 30th through September 5th, the Pacific Northwest is forecast for below-normal precipitation.  The states west of the Mississippi River, Florida, and New England are forecast for normal precipitation. 
  • Most states South of the Mississippi River, besides Florida and New England, are forecast for above-normal precipitation probability

 

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